Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 7.1 | 13.3% | 79 | 0.69% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 13.0 | 20.7% | 123 | 0.9% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 9.0 | 15.5% | 92 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 8.9 | 15.7% | 93 | 0.68% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 7.0 | 11.1% | 66 | 0.63% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 5.3 | 9.6% | 57 | 0.45% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 4.7 | 7.6% | 45 | 0.39% |
| 70+ | 3 | 4.1 | 6.6% | 39 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 65 | 59.1 | 100% | 594 | 0.57% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02 | 14293 | 60009 | 500 | 119 | 510 |
| Oct 03 | 14358 | 60158 | 500 | 119 | 527 |
| Oct 04 | 14359 | 60232 | 501 | 119 | 469 |
| Oct 05 | 14450 | 60318 | 502 | 120 | 501 |
| Oct 06 | 14520 | 60428 | 504 | 121 | 525 |
| Oct 07 | 14585 | 60563 | 504 | 123 | 590 |
| Oct 08 | 14650 | 60688 | 505 | 123 | 594 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02 | 9725 | 35362 | 390 | 110 | 634 |
| Oct 03 | 9751 | 35412 | 392 | 111 | 582 |
| Oct 04 | 9778 | 35454 | 395 | 111 | 534 |
| Oct 05 | 9843 | 35525 | 399 | 111 | 520 |
| Oct 06 | 9872 | 35560 | 401 | 112 | 542 |
| Oct 07 | 9950 | 35623 | 401 | 112 | 611 |
| Oct 08 | 10000 | 35691 | 403 | 112 | 547 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 4.7 | 9.9% | 54 | 0.7% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 10.0 | 19.6% | 107 | 1.27% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 4.9 | 11.2% | 61 | 0.86% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 8.6 | 16.1% | 88 | 1.05% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 5.7 | 11.5% | 63 | 0.81% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 6.1 | 11.5% | 63 | 0.65% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 4.4 | 7.7% | 42 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 5 | 5.4 | 12.6% | 69 | 0.97% |
| All ages | 50 | 49.9 | 100% | 547 | 0.85% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02 | 7456 | 23476 | 361 | 85 | 438 |
| Oct 03 | 7486 | 23513 | 362 | 85 | 409 |
| Oct 04 | 7497 | 23540 | 364 | 85 | 367 |
| Oct 05 | 7526 | 23595 | 369 | 86 | 363 |
| Oct 06 | 7573 | 23640 | 372 | 86 | 358 |
| Oct 07 | 7629 | 23686 | 373 | 86 | 394 |
| Oct 08 | 7666 | 23723 | 373 | 86 | 396 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 3.4 | 8.8% | 35 | 0.64% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 8.4 | 21.2% | 84 | 1.55% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 4.4 | 13.4% | 53 | 1.17% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 3.1 | 11.4% | 45 | 0.83% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 5.7 | 14.6% | 58 | 1.17% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 3.9 | 11.6% | 46 | 0.68% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.6 | 8.8% | 35 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.4 | 10.1% | 40 | 0.63% |
| All ages | 37 | 36.0 | 100% | 396 | 0.88% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02 | 15303 | 68468 | 600 | 103 | 572 |
| Oct 03 | 15368 | 68601 | 600 | 103 | 574 |
| Oct 04 | 15404 | 68678 | 600 | 103 | 534 |
| Oct 05 | 15463 | 68837 | 612 | 103 | 535 |
| Oct 06 | 15505 | 68970 | 616 | 103 | 549 |
| Oct 07 | 15556 | 69108 | 622 | 103 | 566 |
| Oct 08 | 15605 | 69314 | 625 | 104 | 558 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 11 | 7.6 | 12.2% | 68 | 0.58% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 7.9 | 17.6% | 98 | 0.59% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 8.0 | 14.7% | 82 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 7.7 | 13.8% | 77 | 0.57% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 5.0 | 10.9% | 61 | 0.45% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 6.4 | 13.1% | 73 | 0.51% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 5.3 | 10.4% | 58 | 0.41% |
| 70+ | 4 | 4.1 | 7.3% | 41 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 49 | 52.0 | 100% | 558 | 0.47% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02 | 53319 | 408171 | 1850 | 334 | 1373 |
| Oct 03 | 53388 | 408542 | 1851 | 334 | 1281 |
| Oct 04 | 53489 | 409168 | 1852 | 334 | 1233 |
| Oct 05 | 53729 | 409850 | 1861 | 335 | 1316 |
| Oct 06 | 53893 | 410816 | 1865 | 335 | 1425 |
| Oct 07 | 54011 | 411541 | 1866 | 335 | 1496 |
| Oct 08 | 54183 | 412271 | 1870 | 335 | 1517 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 19.1 | 12.3% | 187 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 29 | 24.3 | 17.1% | 260 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 28 | 21.7 | 16.4% | 249 | 0.24% |
| 30-39 | 33 | 25.7 | 16.6% | 252 | 0.33% |
| 40-49 | 30 | 20.0 | 14.4% | 219 | 0.33% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 11.9 | 8.4% | 128 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 13.7 | 8.4% | 128 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 9 | 8.9 | 6.2% | 94 | 0.19% |
| All ages | 172 | 145.3 | 100% | 1517 | 0.28% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02 | 733101 | 3378834 | 39174 | 8024 | 26017 |
| Oct 03 | 734804 | 3384250 | 39228 | 8026 | 24659 |
| Oct 04 | 736385 | 3388480 | 39307 | 8041 | 23558 |
| Oct 05 | 740559 | 3394670 | 39552 | 8064 | 24869 |
| Oct 06 | 742832 | 3402027 | 39665 | 8073 | 25436 |
| Oct 07 | 745802 | 3409876 | 39816 | 8092 | 26992 |
| Oct 08 | 748854 | 3418430 | 39958 | 8107 | 26959 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 297 | 276.9 | 10.6% | 2868 | 0.45% |
| 10-19 | 602 | 489.9 | 19% | 5122 | 0.68% |
| 20-29 | 418 | 323.6 | 12.2% | 3276 | 0.43% |
| 30-39 | 460 | 393.6 | 15% | 4045 | 0.53% |
| 40-49 | 405 | 350.3 | 13.5% | 3627 | 0.52% |
| 50-59 | 347 | 316.1 | 11.8% | 3182 | 0.39% |
| 60-69 | 300 | 258.3 | 9.4% | 2538 | 0.34% |
| 70+ | 223 | 230.7 | 8.5% | 2301 | 0.36% |
| All ages | 3052 | 2639.3 | 100% | 26959 | 0.46% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-10-31 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7807"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges